One in four smokers in Lithuania smokes illicit cigarettes as the share of tobacco produced by non-official factories is growing, according to a new empty pack survey carried out by JTI Baltic, a Dutch tobacco trading company, in cooperation with the market research company Nielsen.
According to the survey, 26.5 percent of smokers in Lithuania smoke products produced outside the country, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from 2023.
Jurgita Baltrūnienė, a lecturer at the Institute of Statutory Education at Mykolas Romeris University in Vilnius, says that the large difference in cigarette prices in Lithuania and Belarus is behind the growth in smuggling.
“The price difference is one of the key factors for consumers when picking smuggled products,” she told BNS.
In addition, she said, Lithuania’s geographical location is convenient for the transit of smuggled cigarettes further into Western Europe, making the country attractive not only for buyers but also for sellers.
“There’s a huge incentive to smuggle cigarettes into Lithuania. The significant price differences between Lithuania and the EU compared to Russia and Belarus, as well as the high demand for cheap cigarettes, are the key reasons,” Baltrūniene explained.
In her words, cigarette smuggling is unlikely to decrease in the future: “The planned policy of raising excise duties between 2025 and 2027 is aggressive, and although the budget will get more revenue, border tensions will also increase”.
According to the survey, the largest share of cigarettes produced outside Lithuania this year came from Belarus. They made 16.8 percent of all cigarettes and 63.4 percent of cigarettes produced outside Lithuania, while their number increased by 7.7 percent compared to a year ago. The share of Polish cigarettes accounted for 4.1 percent of all cigarettes and 15 percent of cigarettes produced outside Lithuania.
In addition, the percentage of counterfeits of domestic companies’ brands doubled over the year, from 1.1 percent to 2.2 percent.
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